Short answer, no. It helps to understand that an economic recession isn’t necessarily tied a real estate price collapse and why it happened last time.

1. Real Estate Prices have never collapsed except that one time

We have a collective trauma from how hard the 08-09 recession hit us, but the funny thing is that the reason people used to say that real estate only goes up is because it had done so until the great recession.

2. The Great Recession was caused by the housing market and subprime loans

After the great recession, several new regulations were passed in the Dodd-Frank act that severely capped the amount of loans being distributed, increased the scrutiny behind mortgage origination (they actually check you make income now), and jacked up the disclaimers and limits to getting lending (this is why closings have 100 pages to sign now).

Even in a "no doc" loan, lenders still check to make sure that rental income supports a healthy margin vs the debt service.

3. Subprime Loans meant several years of overbuilding

We are at an all time deficit for supply. The 08-09 crisis started in 2001 when interest rates were reduced to improve the economy. This led to 6 years of run way and a glut of supply that sank the market.

Low interest rates have only had 2 years to build supply, and although we’re at a new high for building permits, it is still lower that what we had leading up to the great recession because we fell into a major deficit following the 08-09’ period.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12oMI&width=670&height=475

4. Ok, but home prices went up by a lot in a short amount of time, doesn’t that mean they should come down?

It helps to understand why prices went up and what what would make them come down. People sell homes when can’t afford to hold on to them any more. So why do people sell homes?